Calibration
Calibration, in public
Every recorded prediction can be marked hit, partial, miss or void by the person who made it. We publish only aggregate counts, and only after enough predictions have been judged.
Method: a prediction is one falsifiable sentence tied to a date. After that date the owner marks the outcome. Hit rate = hits ÷ (hits + partial + miss). Void means the claim could not be judged and is excluded from the rate.
Limits: outcomes are self-reported, not audited; the sample can be small and skewed. No individual claims are published. A missing number means the sample is below the threshold, not that results are perfect.
Published counts
Self-reported, no audit.Not enough judged predictions to publish a rate yet. Publishing threshold: 20